My calls. Every call from my notes, checked against the market each weekday. The ones I get wrong stay up too.

Verify the ledger 3 ledger entries, all timestamped in Bitcoin (latest block 969893)

Sample These are examples so you can see how the page works. They follow real prices, but they aren’t my calls and they aren’t in the ledger.

Sample numbers

Sample calls61 open, 5 closed
Hit rate20%1 of 5 closed calls made money
Net result−2.10RIn units of risk. +1R means a call made as much as it risked
Brier score0.30How well my confidence matched what happened. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip

For now these numbers come from the examples. Once I make real calls, only those count.

Sample P&L

−2.51R Every call added up in units of risk, marked at each daily close. Open calls count at their latest close. Largest drop from a high: −3.06R.

P&L by month, in R
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
2026			−1.2R	−0.5R	+1.2R	−0.3R	+0.7R	+0.1R	−2.0R	−0.6R			−2.5R

Calls

ID	Call	Entry	Target	Stop	Last or exit	Result	R	Status
S-006	Long US 10-year Treasuries S-006 US 10-year Treasury yield, opened Sep 21, 2026	4.97	4.60	5.25	5.26	−29 bp	−1.02R	Stopped out
	Rationale Easing inflation gives the Fed room to cut, pulling long yields lower. Levels Entry 4.97, target 4.60, stop 5.25, exit 5.26, −1.02R Position Long the bond (short the US 10-year Treasury yield) Horizon 6 months, until Mar 21, 2027 Confidence 55% Thesis Two Speeds Record Full record
S-005	Long BRL vs USD S-005 USD/BRL, opened Sep 21, 2026	5.11	4.85	5.35	5.22	−1.9%	−0.41R	Open
	Rationale Among the highest real rates in the world while inflation converges toward target; the carry pays to wait. Levels Entry 5.11, target 4.85, stop 5.35, last 5.22, −0.41R Position Short USD/BRL Horizon 6 months, until Mar 21, 2027 Confidence 60% Carry included +0.2% Thesis Two Speeds Record Full record
S-004	Long CLP vs USD S-004 USD/CLP, opened Sep 14, 2026	955	905	985	990	−3.6%	−1.15R	Stopped out
	Rationale Copper demand from Chinese grid investment holds up while the Fed eases. Levels Entry 955, target 905, stop 985, exit 990, −1.15R Position Short USD/CLP Horizon 6 months, until Mar 14, 2027 Confidence 60% Thesis The Copper Coast Record Full record
S-003	Long PEN vs USD S-003 USD/PEN, opened May 4, 2026	3.50	3.30	3.62	3.31	+5.5%	+1.66R	Expired
	Rationale Lowest inflation among the regional targeters and a copper tailwind. Levels Entry 3.50, target 3.30, stop 3.62, exit 3.31, +1.66R Position Short USD/PEN Horizon 3 months, until Aug 4, 2026 Confidence 60% Record Full record
S-002	Long MXN vs USD S-002 USD/MXN, opened Apr 13, 2026	17.28	16.60	17.80	17.50	−1.3%	−0.43R	Expired
	Rationale Carry still attractive with Banxico cutting more slowly than markets price. Levels Entry 17.28, target 16.60, stop 17.80, exit 17.50, −0.43R Position Short USD/MXN Horizon 3 months, until Jul 13, 2026 Confidence 55% Record Full record
S-001	Long copper S-001 COMEX copper, front month, opened Mar 2, 2026	5.77	6.50	5.40	5.34	−7.5%	−1.15R	Stopped out
	Rationale Grid and EV demand from China absorbing new mine supply faster than expected. Levels Entry 5.77, target 6.50, stop 5.40, exit 5.34, −1.15R Position Long COMEX copper, front month Horizon 6 months, until Sep 2, 2026 Confidence 60% Record Full record

Open Made money Lost money No resultResult is the move in my direction: % for prices (plus carry on currencies), basis points for yields. R compares the result with what the call risked, the distance from entry to stop: +1R made as much as it risked, −1R lost it.

Rules

How it’s scored. A program applies these every weekday. If I ever change them, the ledger shows it.

1
A call starts at the first daily close after it’s recorded. Nothing before that counts.
2
Every call has a target and a stop. It ends when a daily close reaches one of them, or when its time is up.
3
Only daily closes count, not moves during the day.
4
I can move a target or a stop, but the change is logged and only counts from then on. The direction, entry and confidence can’t change, and nothing leaves the ledger.
5
Results are the move in my direction: % for prices, plus carry on currencies, and basis points for yields.

Full rules

1
A call counts from the day the tracker records it in the ledger. No close dated on or before that day is used for its entry, stop, target or exit. A call dated in the future is not recorded.
2
Entry: for "next close" calls, the first daily close after the call was recorded. For "fixed" calls, the level written in the call, filled at that level on the first daily close after recording that is at or better than it. A fixed call that never fills closes at its horizon with no result.
3
Every call needs a stop. When it is recorded, its target and stop must sit on either side of its fixed entry level or, for a next-close call, of the latest close.
4
Only daily closes count. Intraday highs and lows are ignored.
5
Each daily close is checked in order, starting with the close that fills the entry: at or beyond the stop closes the call as "stopped out"; at or beyond the target closes it as "hit target"; reaching the horizon, counted from the day the call was recorded, closes it as "expired". The exit level is that day's close, not the target or stop, so a call whose entry close is already at or beyond its stop or target closes on that same close, with a zero result for a next-close call.
6
A call I close early, or delete while it is open, is closed at the first daily close after the request.
7
Price calls are scored as the percentage move in the direction of the call, plus carry accrued at the stated annual rate for the days held. Yield calls are scored in basis points; long means long the bond, which gains when the yield falls.
8
R is the result divided by the distance from entry to the stop recorded with the call, in the same units.
9
Open calls are marked to the latest daily close dated before the day the tracker runs.
10
A call stays in the ledger even if it is deleted from the site. Once it is recorded, its opened date, price source, ticker, quote (price or yield), direction, entry, carry and confidence cannot change. Changes to its target, stop or horizon are logged as amendments, must pass the check in rule 3 against the latest close, and apply only from the next close; a horizon that has already passed is refused. Renaming it (title or instrument) is logged as an amendment too.
11
Calls on markets without a free daily price are marked and closed by hand. They are labelled self-reported and kept out of the headline figures.
12
These are paper positions, not investment advice.

Every call is saved in a public ledger with a Bitcoin timestamp, so nothing can be changed or deleted after the fact without it showing.

Check the ledger yourself

Not investment advice. These are my own views, and the calls are hypothetical. There’s no money behind them.